Election night2026

Prices are market-implied probabilities, not polls or election calls. Current odds are the midpoint of Polymarket’s buy and sell quotes. Wide spreads or thin trading can make them unreliable. Resolved outcomes use Polymarket’s published settlement value.

Discovery and candidate names come from the official Gamma API. Every chart and period comparison uses the CLOB historical API, never a log of your refreshes. A 24h change needs an observation at or before 24 hours ago, within one hour of that time.

Sparklines show the selected historical window. Hover or touch any chart to see its probability and date. All charts use 0–100%, with major grid lines at 0, 25, 50, 75, and 100%. The All view requests finer-resolution Polymarket history to recover gaps. Any remaining gaps have dashed estimates between the nearest real observations, clearly labeled on hover. The overview’s History buttons change all summary charts and their period changes; detail charts also have independent timeframe controls.

* Nebraska Senate tracks Polymarket’s Independent win outcome. Alaska Senate tracks Mary Peltola and Alaska governor tracks Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, both Democratic alternatives rather than independents. Each uses a direct candidate/outcome market, not an assumed complement of Republican odds, and may differ from the chance of any Republican losing. Open a flagged race for its exact mapping and source. Democratic sorting includes these flagged alternatives at their displayed probabilities. Republican sorting uses identified Republican outcome prices; unavailable party odds sort last. Manual mappings remain available and are saved only in this browser.

Competitiveness sorts the gap between the two leading quoted outcomes when available, otherwise distance from 50% Democratic odds. “Hide ≥95% favorites” hides state races with a quoted outcome at or above 95%; this is your display preference, not a race call. Customize races lets you add or remove markets for this browser only. Removed races stop refreshing; default races can be restored at any time. Auto-refresh runs while this tab is visible, resumes on return, and refreshes an open chart too.